Global Instability
Yield Note
Instability is not an anomaly. It is a structural feature of the modern world.
GIYN is the first instrument that treats it as such.
The Structural Mispricing
Modern portfolios are structurally overexposed to peace, stability, and functioning supply chains. Yet the global system increasingly operates in an environment of persistent disorder.
Markets treat conflict as episodic. Reality treats it as systemic. This mispricing creates durable alpha.
| Market Assumption | Observed Reality |
|---|---|
| War = event risk | War = continuous operating state |
| Sanctions = political gesture | Sanctions = permanent trade restructuring |
| Migration = humanitarian issue | Migration = structural labor market shock |
| Energy disruption = temporary | Energy disruption = permanent repricing |
| Infrastructure damage = loss | Infrastructure damage = capital cycle opportunity |
Eight Instability Primitives
GIYN is a synthetic structured note composed of eight correlated instability primitives, dynamically rotating capital as conflicts evolve.
Defense Procurement
Public + private defense contract acceleration
Energy Shock Volatility
LNG, Brent, distillate spread dislocations
Sovereign CDS
Emerging & frontier debt stress spreads
Sanctions FX
Currency regime bifurcation baskets
Migration Shock
Labor & housing pressure volatility
Infrastructure Cycle
Destruction → reconstruction arbitrage
Food Security
Grain corridor & fertilizer disruption
Reconstruction Bonds
Post-conflict infrastructure rebuild
Quarterly Crisis Coupon™
Escalation Accelerator™
If any conflict enters multinational coalition, formalized war footing, or sustained infrastructure targeting:
Black Swan Booster™
Auto-triggered within T+2 settlement by:
- • Political assassinations
- • Maritime blockades
- • Energy corridor sabotage
- • Critical infrastructure cyberattacks
- • Unexpected mobilization (>100K personnel)
Reconstruction Alpha Capture™
Once hostilities decline, GIYN automatically rotates into cement, modular housing, emergency telecom, and grid infrastructure. You monetize both destruction and recovery.
Every component already exists
They're just sold separately.
The modern financial system already prices war, hunger, migration, and collapse — it simply does so quietly, distributed across dozens of products with anodyne names.
"Instability isn't a black swan anymore. It's the water we're swimming in. This product doesn't create that reality — it simply admits that the market already monetizes it, and formalizes it into a structure you can actually see."
Risk Disclosure
Returns are positively correlated with humanitarian crises, infrastructure damage, mass displacement, sanctions regimes, and prolonged geopolitical instability.
Sustained peace environments may materially impair performance.
"Diversify your portfolio beyond optimism."
"Because stability is a temporary condition."
"Hedge peace."
Read Full Disclaimer & Critique